House to Vote on Reconciliation Repeal Bill
By Jennifer Haberkorn Politico October 16, 2015
The House plans to vote next Friday on a budget reconciliation bill that would dismantle major parts of Obamacare, but procedural and political hurdles could still get in the way of the GOP’s best chance yet of getting a repeal bill to the president’s desk.
The bill, which would be passed under reconciliation rules that eliminate the chance of a Democratic filibuster in the Senate, would repeal the individual and employer mandates, the Cadillac and medical device taxes, IPAB, the auto-enrollment requirement and the Prevention and Public Health Fund. It would also defund Planned Parenthood for one year.
The reconciliation bill was supposed to force President Barack Obama to defend a veto of politically unpopular parts of his law. But a struggle to get through the GOP-controlled Senate could be potentially embarrassing for the majority party.
The bill is expected to clear the House easily. The Senate is more politically uncertain, because it would eliminate Medicaid funding for Planned Parenthood for one year. That could could be unpalatable to moderate Republicans who are facing tough reelection races, such as Sens. Mark Kirk, Lisa Murkowski or Kelly Ayotte. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has also, in the past, voiced apprehension over defunding the organization.
In August, Kirk voted against starting debate on a standalone bill to defund Planned Parenthood. Ayotte, Collins and Murkowski voted to debate but later told reporters that they had reservations on eliminating all the funding.
Some on Capitol Hill suspect that the Planned Parenthood defunding measure could be subject to Byrd rules, which limit what the Senate can include in reconciliation. Others are skeptical that backers of the reconciliation bill want to blame Byrd rules to cover up the political divide among Republicans on defunding.
The bill does have true procedural hurdles to overcome, said Bill Hoagland, a senior vice president at the Bipartisan Policy Center and a former top Senate GOP budget staffer. But he added, “I think the bigger issue is whether a couple senators – moderate Republicans – can vote for reconciliation, That might be people like Kelly Ayotte, Lisa Murkowski, Susan Collins, because it does deal with Planned Parenthood.”
Gordon Gray, a former Republican Senate budget committee staffer who is now at the American Action Forum, agreed that the defunding provision appears to abide by one of the key requirements of reconciliation.
“It seems like the Medicaid piece has a net budget effect that is more than incidental,” he said.
There are 54 Senate Republicans. That means if no Democrats join the GOP, leadership could lose no more than three senators.
The legislation also has to clear the Senate’s lengthy rules for exactly what provisions can get through the rigid reconciliation process. The final call will come from the Senate parliamentarian.
One item that is raising flags is repeal of the Cadillac tax and IPAB. Some budget experts say that they would likely have to “sunset” after 10 years – which was done when the Bush era tax cuts were approved through reconciliation – but that is not considered a significant obstacle to amend.
The House could choose to preemptively address those problems by changing the bill in the Rules Committee next week or it could wait to pass its bill, send it to the Senate and see what the chamber approves. If the bill changes in the Senate, another vote would be needed in the House.
As of now, the House is expected to vote on the bill without changes, according to Republican aides.
Obama has pledged to veto any legislation that undermines the health care law, including the types of changes in this bill.